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      Repo Rate Review Feb’ 26:   'pause' the rate and 'status quo' stance  likely The last bi-monthly review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for FY26 is scheduled from 4th Feb' 26 and its decisions will be known on 6th Feb' 26.  Key Statistics is a mixed bag: Positives are: 1. CPI Inflation:  CPI inflation at 1.33% in Dec' 25, though higher than the previous month, is still well below the lower band of the target rate of 2-6%, set by MPC. 2. Real GDP growth is estimated to grow by 7.4% in FY26 as against 6.5% recorded in FY25.  3. Fex Reserves:  continues to be on the increase and stood at USD 709.41 billion as on 23rd Jan' 26 4. Liquidity:  RBI conducted USD/INR buy/sell swaps for USD25 billion in Dec' 25 and scheduled another buy/sell swap for USD10 billion in the first week of Feb' 26. Two '90 days tenor' Variable Repo Rate auctions were conducted in Jan' 26 resulting in a 'durabl...

  Deep depreciation of the Indian Rupee A layman tries to understand Indian Rupee, which was quoting around ₹88 per USD two months back, is now threatening to breach ₹92 levels. And in percentage terms, it is 4.5%. As a layman, I attempt to find out the reasons. The monthly imports into India now averages around USD 82 billion, of which merchandise imports alone accounts for USD 65 billion. The average monthly exports from India is USD 72 billion and the share of merchandise exports is less than 50%, the range being USD 34-38 billion. Hence on any month, the merchandise trade deficit is still at USD 25-30 billion and the overall trade deficit is reduced to USD 10 billion, thanks to the substantial increase in the dollar revenue from the services sector. When a country is still reeling under trade deficit, it is logical that the value of the local currency depreciates against the major international currency viz. USD, though the percentage of depreciation has come down considerably ...

  SBT 1985 POs   'unfurl' their nostalgia  in Jan 2026 It was 1987 when the 1985 batch of POs (Probationary Officers) met together for their last training, prior to permanent posting.  After years of struggle to organise a meet with little success, finally a get together of the SBT 1985 batch POs happened in Taj Vivanta,  Marine Drive Ernakulam on 20th January 2026. The entire credit for this goes to my friend Sreeprakash, who coordinated the entire event end to end.  Sitting (L to R):Shri/Smt. -  TTM Tharakan, Sreeprakash, Hari Govind Menon, Sujatha, Geeta, S.K. Ray, Viswanathan, Ashok Menon  Standing (L to R): Shri-  Harishankar, Ashok Kumar, Sivadas, Kishore Babu, Adwait Hebbar, Vinayak Prabhu, Sashidaran, Sudhish, Sasikumar, Girishkumar, Parthsarthy, Thomas Mathew  Some interesting titbits or minutes of the get-to-gether, whatever way you choose to call: * 20 out of the original batch number of 42/43/44 (no consensus reached😊as...

    Repo Rate Review Dec’ 25:  25 bps cut in rate and  change in stance likely The bi-monthly review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled  for three days from 3rd December 2025 and the RBI Governor's statement on  the decisions of MPC is slated for the 5th day of this month. Key Statistics: 1. CPI Inflation: In Oct 25, it is lowest at 0.25%. (food inflation -5.02%; core inflation steady at 4.4%) 2. GDP growth recorded the highest in 6 quarters: At 8.2% in Q2FY25 (Capital formation 7.3%  Manufacturing 9.1%,  Private Consumpation: 7.9%,  Agriculture: 3.5%) 3. Fex Reserves: USD 688.1 billion  4. Indian rupee versus USD breached ₹89 level and was trading at ₹89.5 last week.  5. Fed rate was reduced by 25 bps  in Oct 25 and the market expects another cut of 25 bps in Dec 25 6. RBI cancelled its G-Sec auction for ₹11000 cr. on 31st Oct 25. 7. 10 year G-Sec (6.33% coupon rate) has ...

  AEL may acquire JAL:  Interesting facts put together Fact 3:  National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd. (NARCL) led Committee of Creditors (CoC) approved Adani Enterprises Ltd's (AEL) bid of ₹ 12731 Cr. (total resolution plan value app. ₹ 14535 Cr.) to acquire debt-ridden Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.(JAL), though Vedanta Group offered ₹ 16000 Cr. AEL's offer of an upfront cash payment of ₹ 6005 Cr. and payment of balance amount over two years thereafter, appear to have found favour with CoC as against the offer of Vedanta, which offered an upfront cash payment of ₹ 3800 Cr. and paying the balance amount over five years. NARCL has the highest exposure of ₹ 49,119 Cr., followed by Asset Care & Reconstruction Enterprise (ACRE) (₹ 2,315 Cr.) and the two ARCs  together  hold nearly 90% of the total voting share in the CoC. Creditors' total exposure to JAL was ₹ 57185 cr. The offer of AEL works out to 22% of the total exposure. Fact 1: A  new National Asset ...