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Blog No:175: MPC Repo Rate Review - Pause or one more cut?

      Repo Rate Review Feb’ 26:   'pause' the rate and 'status quo' stance  likely The last bi-monthly review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for FY26 is scheduled from 4th Feb' 26 and its decisions will be known on 6th Feb' 26.  Key Statistics is a mixed bag: Positives are: 1. CPI Inflation:  CPI inflation at 1.33% in Dec' 25, though higher than the previous month, is still well below the lower band of the target rate of 2-6%, set by MPC. 2. Real GDP growth is estimated to grow by 7.4% in FY26 as against 6.5% recorded in FY25.  3. Fex Reserves:  continues to be on the increase and stood at USD 709.41 billion as on 23rd Jan' 26 4. Liquidity:  RBI conducted USD/INR buy/sell swaps for USD25 billion in Dec' 25 and scheduled another buy/sell swap for USD10 billion in the first week of Feb' 26. Two '90 days tenor' Variable Repo Rate auctions were conducted in Jan' 26 resulting in a 'durabl...

Depreciation of Indian Rupee - A layman analyses

  Deep depreciation of the Indian Rupee A layman tries to understand Indian Rupee, which was quoting around ₹88 per USD two months back, is now threatening to breach ₹92 levels. And in percentage terms, it is 4.5%. As a layman, I attempt to find out the reasons. The monthly imports into India now averages around USD 82 billion, of which merchandise imports alone accounts for USD 65 billion. The average monthly exports from India is USD 72 billion and the share of merchandise exports is less than 50%, the range being USD 34-38 billion. Hence on any month, the merchandise trade deficit is still at USD 25-30 billion and the overall trade deficit is reduced to USD 10 billion, thanks to the substantial increase in the dollar revenue from the services sector. When a country is still reeling under trade deficit, it is logical that the value of the local currency depreciates against the major international currency viz. USD, though the percentage of depreciation has come down considerably ...

1985 batch SBT POs in Ernakulam

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  SBT 1985 POs   'unfurl' their nostalgia  in Jan 2026 It was 1987 when the 1985 batch of POs (Probationary Officers) met together for their last training, prior to permanent posting.  After years of struggle to organise a meet with little success, finally a get together of the SBT 1985 batch POs happened in Taj Vivanta,  Marine Drive Ernakulam on 20th January 2026. The entire credit for this goes to my friend Sreeprakash, who coordinated the entire event end to end.  Sitting (L to R):Shri/Smt. -  TTM Tharakan, Sreeprakash, Hari Govind Menon, Sujatha, Geeta, S.K. Ray, Viswanathan, Ashok Menon  Standing (L to R): Shri-  Harishankar, Ashok Kumar, Sivadas, Kishore Babu, Adwait Hebbar, Vinayak Prabhu, Sashidaran, Sudhish, Sasikumar, Girishkumar, Parthsarthy, Thomas Mathew  Some interesting titbits or minutes of the get-to-gether, whatever way you choose to call: * 20 out of the original batch number of 42/43/44 (no consensus reached😊as...

RBI MPC may cut repo rate by 25 bps

    Repo Rate Review Dec’ 25:  25 bps cut in rate and  change in stance likely The bi-monthly review meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled  for three days from 3rd December 2025 and the RBI Governor's statement on  the decisions of MPC is slated for the 5th day of this month. Key Statistics: 1. CPI Inflation: In Oct 25, it is lowest at 0.25%. (food inflation -5.02%; core inflation steady at 4.4%) 2. GDP growth recorded the highest in 6 quarters: At 8.2% in Q2FY25 (Capital formation 7.3%  Manufacturing 9.1%,  Private Consumpation: 7.9%,  Agriculture: 3.5%) 3. Fex Reserves: USD 688.1 billion  4. Indian rupee versus USD breached ₹89 level and was trading at ₹89.5 last week.  5. Fed rate was reduced by 25 bps  in Oct 25 and the market expects another cut of 25 bps in Dec 25 6. RBI cancelled its G-Sec auction for ₹11000 cr. on 31st Oct 25. 7. 10 year G-Sec (6.33% coupon rate) has ...

ADANI may acquire JAL: Interesting facts

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  AEL may acquire JAL:  Interesting facts put together Fact 3:  National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd. (NARCL) led Committee of Creditors (CoC) approved Adani Enterprises Ltd's (AEL) bid of ₹ 12731 Cr. (total resolution plan value app. ₹ 14535 Cr.) to acquire debt-ridden Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.(JAL), though Vedanta Group offered ₹ 16000 Cr. AEL's offer of an upfront cash payment of ₹ 6005 Cr. and payment of balance amount over two years thereafter, appear to have found favour with CoC as against the offer of Vedanta, which offered an upfront cash payment of ₹ 3800 Cr. and paying the balance amount over five years. NARCL has the highest exposure of ₹ 49,119 Cr., followed by Asset Care & Reconstruction Enterprise (ACRE) (₹ 2,315 Cr.) and the two ARCs  together  hold nearly 90% of the total voting share in the CoC. Creditors' total exposure to JAL was ₹ 57185 cr. The offer of AEL works out to 22% of the total exposure. Fact 1: A  new National Asset ...

GST: The conundrum in Reforms announced

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  GST Reforms: Who is the beneficiary? Aam Aadmi or Corporate? GST Council, comprising finance ministers and representatives from both the state and central governments, implemented certain reforms to the existing policy, by reducing the slab rates to two (from four) and introducing a new 40% slab for goods and services that are considered luxurious/intoxicant/injurious to health. The move is being hailed as the most beneficial for a common man. Even before the dust set in, the first discrepancy cropped up, as exemption of GST on life and health insurance policies were restricted to individual insurance and reinsurance thereof. All India Retirees' Federation and two others filed a writ petition (WP) in the High Court of Kerala (high court), challenging the levy of GST on group health insurance policies. The petitioners also requested the high court to direct IBA (an association representing majority of the Indian Banks) and National Insurance Co. Ltd. to not to levy GST on insuran...

Thrissur Memories of SBTians

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Worked in SBT, Thrissur? Participated in the get together on 25.10.25? (“No”. Then  You missed a page of the glorious history of SBT) A "Get together of SBT Officers Thrissur on 25.10.25 " whatsapp group was opened by Shri Prasad on 23rd July 2025. More than 700 eligibles joined the group within 45 days (the group strength now is 726). 326 members confirmed participation and 300 plus happily joined the celebrations on the "D Day" at Casino Hotel Thrissur. Unbelievable, but made possible by the team led by Prasad and the ever willing SBTHRISSURians of yesteryears. Travancore Bank with the 'elephant' logo and SBT with 'long tradition of trust' emblem welcomed us. The function started with the famous SBT Song. A formal inauguration of "lighting the lamp" by the old 'elite' added colours to the event. The ever dependable Harishankar (I am his batchmate😊) wore different hats on that day. Shri Sunil performed the role of master of ceremo...