COVID - NEED OF THE HOUR

 

COVID - NEED OF THE HOUR

Good morning Friends, 

Lie, bloody lie and statistics is what we used to say when we studied statistics. 

While using it for past events might be useful depending on the variants used in numerator and denominator, it will conceal the seriousness of issue when used for current events. 

For Example: 

1. No. of persons affected in COVID as on 8th May 2021: 2.15 cr. 

    No. of deaths: 2.34 lacs 

    Percentage of death: 1.09% 

2. No. of persons affected in COVID as on 1st June 2021: 2.81 cr 

    No. of deaths: 3.29 lacs 

  Percentage of death: 1.17% 

If you do not recollect 8th May figures, you will feel the percentage of death is less in India. But in the last 23 days, the number of deaths is 95000 which works out to 40% more than what was the number of deaths recorded from Mar 2020 to May 2021(14 months) (2.34 lacs). 

(Even if you compare the figures with the increase n the number of persons affected in these 23 days, which is 31% more than the total no of persons affected in 14 months period, the deaths are much more.) 

So any time statistics can be used to shift the focus from real issue. 

Is not the situation serious? The number of deaths and no. of perdons getting critically ill can never be treated like the first phase. Country gained experience and even if number of persons affected goes up, the critical illness and deaths should come down with the experience gained. 

And the solution lies in 

1. Increasing the Vaccination Drive  - 

Four issues  to be addressed- 

(i)    Increase the supply substantially - Inform the public once in a fortnight on action plans, implementation whether as per plans made, bottlenecks faced and what is proposed for the next fortnight.

(ii)  Decide once for all - what will be the timings of vaccines (first and second dose - within a month. 8-12 weeks or 12-16 weeks etc.), how much of population is to be covered in the different age groups (60 & above, 45-60, 18-45, below 18) before end of December and publish it. 

(iii) Still there are hesitation with a significant population on the safety of vaccines as regards 'abnormal' adverse effects and on whether their efficacy is proved. High time to conduct antibody tests among a sample of the population vaccinated - how much antibody got developed after first vaccination, whether the second dose has improved that antibody by what percentage - in both COVISHIELD and COVAXIN - This should be published along with 'abnormal' adverse results.

(iv) No. of persons affected after getting vaccinated and how many had mild, how many survived, and how many succumbed 

2. Prepare for one more wave or the second wave itself continuing unabated.  Increase the number of tests.  Do not restrict it to the number of persons who visit the labs.  During the first wave, testing was taken to homes by visiting nurses, lab technicians etc.  This is most important for two reasons. a) people are even now not familiar as to how to get this tested and are reluctant to ask neighbours for fear of 'social stigma' b) the epidemic has spread to semi urban and rural areas and there may not be lab facilities there/people will prefer to sit at home taking self-medicines

3. To prevent more deaths, form a committee in each state/district to look into how the patients are treated in the government hospitals, is it different in private . While the government hospitals might be blamed for being indifferent (hopefully no such report so far), the private might be alleged for making money out of the epidemic. They should give a detailed report at weekly intervals, (matter concerning life of a citizen so more importance for this to be given) corrective actions initiated and penalties imposed on wrong/erring officials/hospitals

4. The Central Government and State Government to talk in one voice

5. Finally unless public joins voluntarily to be disciplined - waering mask, social distancing vaccinate and follow guidelines on washing hands, keep hygiene etc - any effort by officials will meet half success only

Regards 

V. Viswanathan

1st June 2021

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